IMF says Africa has to keep lights on before it can bet on AI

In the heart of Nairobi, Kenya, the hum of geothermal energy powering a $1 billion data centre campus, a project spearheaded by Microsoft and Abu Dhabi-based G42, is evidence of Africa's growing ambition artificial intelligence (AI). Yet, this beacon of innovation stands in stark contrast to the harsh reality faced by millions of homes, schools, and businesses across the continent, where dependable electricity and affordable Internet access remain a distant dream. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in a recent report, has sounded a clarion call, urging African countries to address the crippling infrastructure deficit before they can even begin to tap into the boundless potential of AI.

The IMF's report paints a striking picture of Africa's AI future, with estimates suggesting that the technology could boost sub-Saharan Africa's economic output by as much as 4% over the next decade, provided countries invest in electricity, digital infrastructure, and skills. However, under current conditions, the gain could be as little as 0.2%, a figure that Martin Schindler, the lead author of the IMF paper, dismisses as little more than "a rounding error." This dichotomy highlights the precarious nature of Africa's AI ambitions, where the technology may not spread widely enough to generate meaningful economic gains.

The gap between these two scenarios is where Africa's AI future will be decided. While governments and workers in the United States and Europe are preoccupied with the potential job losses resulting from AI, Africa faces a different challenge: the technology may not spread widely enough to generate meaningful economic gains. Most workers in the region are employed in agriculture, informal retail, and manual services, where today's AI systems are less likely to replace them. However, this does not make them immune to the effects of AI. African businesses could lose customers and contracts as competitors elsewhere use AI to write software, forecast demand, manage inventory, and deliver services more efficiently.

"For sub-Saharan Africa, the central concern is not the risk of technological disruption, but whether countries will be able to adopt, adapt and scale AI quickly enough to capture its benefits and avoid falling further behind," the IMF paper says. This statement underscores the need for Africa's policymakers to shift their focus from producing rival AI models to deploying practical tools on farms, in classrooms, in clinics, and in small businesses. The continent's place in the global AI race may ultimately depend on its ability to harness the potential of AI to drive economic growth and improve the lives of its citizens.

• The IMF estimates that AI could increase sub-Saharan Africa's economic output by as much as 4% over the next decade.
• Under current conditions, the gain could be as little as 0.2%.
• Martin Schindler describes the smaller figure as little more than "a rounding error."
• Most workers in sub-Saharan Africa are employed in agriculture, informal retail, and manual services.

As a writer, I am struck by the stark contrast between the optimism surrounding Africa's AI ambitions and the harsh reality of the continent's infrastructure deficits. The IMF's report serves as a wake-up call, urging African countries to take immediate action to address the crippling infrastructure deficit before they can even begin to tap into the boundless potential of AI. The future of Africa's AI ambitions hangs in the balance, and it is imperative that policymakers and stakeholders take a proactive approach to harnessing the potential of AI to drive economic growth and improve the lives of its citizens.

The IMF's warning is clear: Africa must keep the lights on before it can bet on AI. The continent's place in the global AI race will ultimately depend on its ability to address the infrastructure gap and deploy practical tools to drive economic growth and improve the lives of its citizens. The clock is ticking, and Africa's policymakers must take immediate action to ensure that the continent does not fall further behind in the global AI race.