33 years after: Can Nigeria ever have another election like June 12?

For Chief MKO Abiola, the June 12, 1993 presidential election was a defining moment in his life. It was a poll that not only catapulted him to national prominence but also marked a rare instance of electoral transparency and fairness in Nigeria's history. Abiola, a renowned businessman and politician, had always been a strong advocate for democracy, and his election campaign was built around the promise of a better future for Nigerians. The annulment of the election by the military regime of General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida left Abiola with a lifetime of questions and a nation in turmoil. Today, 33 years after that fateful election, Nigeria still grapples with the question of whether it can ever replicate the transparency and fairness of the June 12 poll.

The June 12 election was a remarkable feat in Nigeria's electoral history, with over 14 million voters participating in the poll. The Social Democratic Party's Chief MKO Abiola emerged victorious, securing over eight million votes, while his challenger, Bashir Othman Tofa of the National Republican Convention, garnered about six million votes. The transparency of the election was evident in the way the organisers, led by late Professor Humphrey Nwosu, ensured that voters were properly counted and their figures entered into the result sheets. This transparency was a far cry from the shambolic primaries that characterised last month's elections, where some parties shamefully displayed their inability to count votes arithmetically.

In recent years, there have been attempts to replicate the June 12 model, but these efforts have been met with limited success. The 2019 general elections, for instance, were marred by controversies surrounding the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the conduct of the polls. The current administration's efforts to improve the electoral process have been hampered by a lack of commitment to transparency and accountability. The recent primaries, where some parties tried to emulate the June 12 model, ended in disarray, with many parties resorting to geometric counting instead of arithmetic. This raises questions about the feasibility of replicating the June 12 model in modern-day Nigeria.

The June 12 election was a reflection of Nigeria's electoral challenges, which have persisted for decades. The country's history is replete with instances of electoral manipulation, violence, and rigging. The annulment of the June 12 election was a stark reminder of the military's disdain for democratic principles and the nation's susceptibility to electoral manipulation. Today, Nigeria still grapples with the consequences of that annulment, and the country's electoral landscape remains fraught with challenges. The recent recognition of June 12 as Democracy Day by the Federal Government is a step in the right direction, but it remains to be seen whether this recognition will translate into tangible improvements in the electoral process.

As Nigeria marks the 33rd anniversary of the June 12 election, it is clear that the country still has a long way to go in replicating the transparency and fairness of that poll. However, I predict that the current administration's efforts to improve the electoral process will bear fruit in the next few years. With the right commitment to transparency and accountability, Nigeria can replicate the June 12 model and move closer to achieving its democratic ideals.

As we reflect on the June 12 election, we must remember that it was a rare instance of electoral transparency and fairness in Nigeria's history. While we still have a long way to go, the recognition of June 12 as Democracy Day is a step in the right direction. With renewed commitment to democratic principles and electoral reform, Nigeria can finally replicate the June 12 model and move closer to achieving its democratic ideals.